World Briefing 2026-10-10: Hormuz Tensions Keep Brent Near $104 and Freight Costs High

Key takeaways

• Brent finished near $104 a barrel on 9 October, and a large LPG carrier was reported struck in the Strait of Hormuz.
• China restarted refined-fuel exports after the holiday, approving about 3.7 million tonnes of October gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
• The WTO lifted its 2026 goods-trade growth forecast to 3.9% from 1.9%, but sees Middle East exports falling 17.2%.

A pledge to hold off on strikes before the US midterms did not remove the Hormuz transit premium, so oil stayed above $100. China’s fuel-export restart and a stronger world trade outlook both feed into fuel costs and volume planning.

Hormuz risk and triple-digit oil

Washington said it would not resume strikes on Iran before November’s midterm elections, which took some immediate supply fear out of the market. Oil stayed expensive anyway. Brent jumped more than 4% the day before and settled near $104 a barrel on 9 October, after trading between the low $102s and about $105.

The strait itself did not quiet down. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it hit a large LPG carrier that was trying to pass south of the strait on what Tehran called an unauthorized route. A major fire was reported in the engine room and propulsion system. Nightly enforcement and explosions in the southern strait were also reported. The election pause capped the rally. It did not remove the transit premium. How an oil spike feeds into freight and landed cost is covered in our note on the 1 October Brent jump.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-10-09/

Container rates stay high as late-October increases loom

The latest weekly container index is still the 8 October reading of $4,351 per 40-foot box, down 2% on the week; lane-by-lane figures are in the 9 October briefing. Shanghai–New York at $10,220 and Shanghai–Los Angeles at $7,624 remain elevated, and Asia–Europe has now fallen for 13 straight weeks.

What is new is on the cost side. Blank sailings on Asia–Europe rise from five this week to six next week, and carriers are lining up higher base rates for the second half of October. A faster return of ships to the Suez Canal is adding capacity on Europe lanes, while the Hormuz strike keeps bunker and war-risk add-ons in play. This is a holiday air pocket, not a return to pre-conflict pricing.

Source: https://www.furnituretoday.com/supply-chain/container-rates-fall-during-golden-week-but-hormuz-risks-intensify/

China reopens October fuel exports

China paused refined-product shipments beyond Hong Kong and Macau over the National Day holiday, then cleared October volumes. Traders said combined gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel exports of about 3.7 million tonnes were approved. September exports had been expected at a little over 4 million tonnes, so the restart is real but smaller than the prior month.

Beijing tightened product exports in March to protect domestic supply after Middle East crude and refining flows were disrupted, then loosened the curbs from July to September. The October clearance can take a little pressure off tight diesel markets. Monthly vetting remains, so volumes can be cut again if domestic stocks slip.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-resume-october-fuel-exports-after-brief-halt-four-trade-sources-say-2026-10-09/

Goods-trade forecast raised to 3.9%, with a wide regional split

On 8 October the World Trade Organization lifted its 2026 merchandise trade volume forecast to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March. The 2027 figure is 4.1%. Trade in semiconductors, servers and other AI-related goods rose 67% year on year in the first half and accounted for 47% of the gain in goods trade. Merchandise volumes grew 3.5% in the first half. World GDP is projected at 2.6% in 2026.

Services trade was cut to 3.3% from 4.8% because of higher aviation fuel costs. The geography is uneven. Asian exports are forecast up 9.9% and North American exports up 5.7%, while European exports edge down 0.1% and Middle East exports fall 17.2%. Asia is expected to contribute more than the entire global increase. The 2027 path assumes the Middle East conflict eases in time.

Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/business/wto-upgrades-2026-goods-trade-growth-forecast-to-3-9-as-ai-boom-offsets-middle-east-disruption

What this means for shippers and traders

Freight is still a line item that can move a quote. US East Coast spots near $10,220 per 40-foot box and West Coast spots near $7,624 should be booked with the Golden Week dip noted, and with a separate line for late-October increases and bunker surcharges. Another Hormuz incident can erase a small base-rate decline. On Asia–Europe, 13 weeks of declines and more Suez capacity are a reason to rebalance spot and contract cover.

Payment timing matters because high oil lifts both energy invoices and dollar demand for freight. Letters of credit and telegraphic transfers need a buffer when fuel and ocean rates move together (see letter of credit vs T/T). Fuel buyers should confirm whether the 3.7 million tonne October clearance actually produces a loading, not just an approval.

Customs teams moving AI hardware can treat that flow as the part of the forecast that is actually expanding, and should not assume Middle East origin cargo will move on a normal schedule given the projected 17.2% export drop. Check next week’s surcharge notices, the effective date of any late-October rate rise, Chinese product-export loadings, and the currency on energy and component invoices.

FAQ

Why is oil still near $104 after the pre-election pause?

Brent settled near $104 on 9 October. The pledge against a pre-election strike stopped a further spike, but the reported strike on an LPG carrier and continued enforcement in the strait left a transit premium in place.

Will China’s export restart lower diesel prices quickly?

The approved volume is about 3.7 million tonnes, below the September expectation. It can ease a tight diesel market at the margin, but monthly screening remains, so do not price a decline into a contract before a loading is fixed.

What drove the WTO’s upgrade?

AI-related goods such as semiconductors and servers. Their trade rose 67% year on year in the first half and accounted for 47% of the gain in goods trade, lifting the 2026 forecast to 3.9%.