Hormuz Mine Claims: What Changes? (World Briefing 10/30)

Despite Hormuz tanker mine claims, Brent fell to $114.88 a barrel on 29 October. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three tankers hit mines while using an unauthorised route south of the Strait of Hormuz, yet hopes for US-Iran peace talks weighed more, and Brent settled 0.38% lower. The IEA puts the cost of shipping crude from the Gulf to Asia above $37 a barrel, and Asia-US East Coast container rates are at a 2026 high.

Key points

• Oil: Brent settled down 44 cents (0.38%) at $114.88 on 29 October, and WTI fell 78 cents (0.76%) to $102 (Reuters).
• Hormuz: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three tankers struck mines and caught fire over the past 24 hours. US Central Command says mines in the primary transit routes have been cleared.
• Crude freight: the IEA said Gulf-Asia crude freight topped $37 a barrel by mid-October. For a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels, that is more than $74 million per cargo, against under $15 million before the war.
• Container rates: per Freightos, Asia-US West Coast rose 3% to $8,368/FEU last week and the East Coast rose 9% to a 2026 high of $10,565/FEU.
• US port fees: the USTR has requested comments on deferring port call fees on China-linked vessels to January. See the 10/28 briefing for background.

Main stories

Why did oil fall despite the mine claims?

Markets gave more weight to the chance of renewed US-Iran peace talks. Both benchmarks fell more than $2 during the session before trimming losses, unwinding part of Wednesday’s 1.3% gain in Brent and 3% gain in WTI.

Supply worries have not gone away. Yemen’s Houthis said they attacked Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and an Aramco facility in Abqaiq, which Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm. CNBC said investors are also weighing possible US military action against Iran after the 3 November midterm elections.

Sources: Reuters (via Euronext), CNBC, AP

How expensive is it to move Gulf crude now?

According to the IEA, Gulf-Asia crude freight passed $37 a barrel by mid-October, about five times pre-war levels. For one VLCC of about 2 million barrels, that is more than $74 million.

Volumes are moving anyway. The WSJ, citing Kpler, reported Middle East crude exports above 24 million barrels a day in the week to 18 October, more than the pre-war average of 23.3 million. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pushed more crude through pipelines that bypass the strait, lifting the bypass share from 17% to 40%, while flows through Hormuz are at about 82% of pre-war levels. Earlier freight trends are in the 10/28 briefing.

Source: World Ports Organization (citing IEA and Kpler)

Are transpacific container rates still climbing?

They were last week. Even in the slow season, Asia-US West Coast rose 3% to $8,368/FEU and the East Coast rose 9% to $10,565/FEU, the highest this year.

This week East Coast daily rates have eased a little, and some forwarders report cooling demand and more available space. Asia-N. Europe rose 3% to $3,551/FEU and the Mediterranean 8% to $4,252/FEU.

Source: AJOT (Freightos weekly update)

What is happening with US-China tariffs and port fees?

In late September the US and China extended their trade truce by two months and agreed to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of each other’s imports to most-favoured-nation levels. The cuts take effect only after the required legal procedures.

US port call fees on China-linked vessels are still officially set for 10 November, but the USTR has asked for comments on postponing them to January. The USTR also expects to finish its Section 301 excess-capacity investigations by year-end, so tariff increases could come as early as March.

Sources: Air Freight News (Freightos weekly update), AJOT

What it means for importers and exporters

• Middle East cargo: crude freight and war-risk insurance remain high. Ask carriers and insurers now how surcharges will apply (see our BAF surcharge guide).
• US-bound containers: East Coast rates are above $10,000/FEU. Check quote validity and whether surcharges are included, and keep the possible 1 November LA-Long Beach watchmen strike in view (10/29 briefing).
• US-China trade: check whether your goods are on the tariff-cut lists (about 80 US product entries, more than 1,600 on China’s list).

Check now: insurance and surcharge terms for Middle East cargo, validity of US-bound rate quotes, and the US-China tariff-cut product lists.

See the 10/31 briefing for the next day.

FAQ

Have the mine strikes on tankers been confirmed?

Not independently. As of 29 October the claim came from the Revolutionary Guards and had not been independently confirmed, and US Central Command said the primary transit routes had been cleared of mines.

When does the $37-a-barrel freight figure date from?

It comes from an IEA analysis published on 22 October and reflects Gulf-Asia crude freight in mid-October. Some reports since then say VLCC earnings have eased slightly from their peak.

Do the US-China tariff cuts apply right away?

No. Both sides must complete the necessary legal procedures first. Confirm product coverage and effective dates in official customs or US Federal Register notices.

Press coverage and sources

• https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-prices-settles-lower-diplomacy-hopes-offset-some-mideast-supply-concerns (Reuters, 29 Oct oil settlement, Houthi and mine claims)
• https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/oil-price-today-wti-brent.html (CNBC, 29 Oct oil prices)
• https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-israel-elections-netanyahu-october-282026-c11dac838a072af25ba8d0eb81d01035 (AP, Iran’s tanker mine claim)
• https://www.worldports.org/iea-gulf-oil-shipping-costs-top-37-per-barrel-five-times-pre-war-levels/ (World Ports Organization, IEA freight cost and Kpler flows)
• https://www.ajot.com/news/freightos-weekly-update-union-approves-la-long-beach-port-strike-container-rates-still-under-pressure (AJOT, Freightos 28 Oct rates and USTR fee deferral)
• https://airfreight.news/articles/full/freightos-weekly-update-china-us-truce-to-reduce-some-tariffs-and-likely-postpone-port-fees (Air Freight News, US-China truce extension and tariff cuts)