Hormuz Traffic at 10%: What Changes? (World Briefing 11/2)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at about 10% of normal, keeping pressure on oil prices and seaborne transport costs. Container rates fell 3% in a week, and the US has proposed extending its pause on port fees for China-linked vessels to 9 January 2027.

Key points

• Hormuz: as of 1 November the strait’s status is “Restricted”, with commercial transits averaging 8.1 a day over the past seven days, about 10% of the pre-crisis 84.8 a day (hormuz.now).
• Oil: Brent closed at $113.54 a barrel on 30 October (Strategic Energy Map, citing Trading Economics).
• Container rates: Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) fell 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container as of 29 October (Drewry).
• US-China port fees: USTR has proposed a two-month extension of the fee suspension through 9 January 2027. It has not been adopted yet.

Top stories

How far has Hormuz traffic fallen?

According to hormuz.now, the Strait of Hormuz was in “Restricted” status on 1 November, day 247 of the crisis that began on 28 February. AIS-visible commercial transits averaged 8.1 a day over the past week, about 10% of the 84.8 a day seen before the crisis.

Iran’s navy made a new mine claim east of Hormuz that has not been independently verified. Qatar-mediated talks ended on 31 October without a deal to resume direct US-Iran negotiations (Strategic Energy Map summary). See the 10/31 briefing for the previous days.

Sources: hormuz.now (IMF PortWatch and AIS data), Strategic Energy Map dashboard

Where are oil prices?

Brent closed at $113.54 a barrel on 30 October, slightly below $114.55 a week earlier but about 57% above the pre-crisis reference week of 23 February ($72.48). WTI closed at $104.19 the same day.

Source: Strategic Energy Map dashboard (citing Trading Economics closes for 30 October)

How much have container rates eased?

Drewry’s WCI fell 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container as of 29 October. Shanghai-Los Angeles dropped 6% to $7,514 and Shanghai-New York fell 5% to $9,631, while Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686 and Shanghai-Genoa was unchanged at $4,151.

At the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the strike deadline set by the watchmen’s union (ILWU Local 26) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) remains extended to 5pm Pacific Time on 4 November.

Sources: Drewry WCI weekly release (World Ports Organization), PMA statement (gCaptain)

Will the US-China port-fee pause be extended?

USTR has filed a Federal Register notice proposing to extend the suspension of Section 301 maritime service fees on China-linked vessels by two months, from 00:00 US Eastern Time on 10 November 2026 through 9 January 2027. It covers fees on Chinese vessel owners and operators, operators of Chinese-built ships and foreign-built vehicle carriers, and would keep suspended the additional 100% duties on Chinese ship-to-shore cranes.

The current suspension expires on 9 November 2026 and the comment period closed on 30 October. The proposal has not been adopted, so watch for the final notice.

Sources: World Ports Organization, USTR notice

What it means for exporters and importers

• Freight and surcharges: while Hormuz traffic stays restricted, fuel surcharges and war-risk insurance costs can stay elevated (BAF guide).
• Container quotes: transpacific rates are soft for now but can move again with carrier capacity management. Check quote validity and included items (ocean freight quote guide).
• US-bound cargo: if LA-Long Beach terminals stop, pickups can slip past free time (demurrage and detention guide).
• US-China trade: if the fee pause lapses after 9 November without an extension, bookings on China-linked vessels could carry extra costs. Ask your carrier whether they apply.

What to check now: carrier rate and surcharge notices, the final USTR notice, insurance terms for Middle East cargo, and LA-Long Beach terminal status.

See the 11/3 briefing for the next update.

FAQ

Is the Strait of Hormuz open right now?

Only partly. hormuz.now listed it as “Restricted” on 1 November, with commercial traffic at about 10% of pre-crisis levels.

Will US port fees on China-linked ships return on 10 November?

USTR has proposed extending the pause through 9 January 2027, but it has not been adopted. Until the final notice is out, confirm with your carrier.

Will container rates keep falling?

Drewry’s WCI fell 3% in a week. Surcharges can still change with the Hormuz situation and any LA-Long Beach strike, so check how long your quote is valid.

Sources

• https://hormuz.now/ (hormuz.now, Hormuz traffic status as of 1 November 2026)
• https://strategicenergymap.org/dashboard/ (Strategic Energy Map, Brent and WTI closes for 30 October and 1 November summary)
• https://www.worldports.org/drewry-the-world-container-index-decreased-3-this-week-44-2026/ (Drewry WCI week 44 2026 release)
• https://gcaptain.com/strike-threat-at-los-angeles-long-beach-ports-delayed-as-union-and-employers-extend-talks/ (gCaptain, LA-Long Beach strike deadline extension)
• https://www.worldports.org/us-seeks-to-extend-china-linked-ship-fee-freeze-to-january-2027/ (World Ports Organization, USTR fee suspension proposal)
• https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Issue_Areas/Enforcement/Section%20301/Proposed%20Modification%20to%20Further%20Suspend%20Action%20for%20Two%20Months.pdf (USTR notice)