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Brent Nears $110: What Changes? | World Briefing 10/18

Brent touched $110 and closed at its highest since May. With a US pause on Russia-linked tariffs and China's tech export curbs, what changes for costs?

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Contents
  1. Key takeaways
  2. Top stories
  3. Brent touches $110, highest close since May
  4. US offers up to 17 million SPR barrels via exchange
  5. US waives 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy
  6. China proposes export curbs on 40 AI, solar and biotech technologies
  7. Container rates: Asia–Europe rebounds after 13 weeks
  8. What it means for traders
  9. FAQ
  10. How high is $110 Brent?
  11. Does the US waiver mean trading Russian energy is now unrestricted?
  12. When do China’s new technology export controls apply?
  13. Press coverage / sources

Fuel costs took another step up: Brent touched $110 a barrel on 16 October and settled at $109.86, its highest close since 19 May, while the US paused 100% tariffs on big buyers of Russian energy just before they were due to start. China also proposed export curbs on 40 AI, solar and biotech technologies and made pre-export registration mandatory at once.

Key takeaways

  • December Brent settled 3.7% higher at $109.86 a barrel on 16 October and WTI rose 3.5% to $101.41. Over the week Brent gained 4.9% and WTI 10.4%.
  • The US Department of Energy issued a request for proposals the same day for an exchange of up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
  • An executive order waived the Graham Act’s 100% and 500% tariffs and some new sanctions on Russia. Existing Russia sanctions stay in force.
  • China’s commerce and science ministries proposed adding 40 technologies (14 banned, 26 restricted) to the export-control catalogue and required registration before exporting them, effective immediately.
  • Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per FEU on 15 October, and Asia–Europe rates ended 13 straight weekly declines.

Top stories

Brent touches $110, highest close since May

Reuters reported that Brent futures touched $110 on 16 October for the first time since May and settled $3.94 (3.7%) higher at $109.86, the highest close since 19 May. WTI rose $3.44 (3.5%) to $101.41, its highest since 17 September. For the week Brent gained 4.9% and WTI 10.4%. Traders priced fears of a wider Middle East escalation alongside doubts over how much diesel Russia can actually supply, and Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refining after dropping an energy ceasefire.

Sources: Reuters via Investing.com, Dow Jones via Morningstar, Argaam

US offers up to 17 million SPR barrels via exchange

The US Department of Energy issued a request for proposals on 16 October for an exchange of up to 17 million barrels of SPR crude, meaning companies borrow oil now and return more later. It forms part of the 172 million barrels Washington pledged to the International Energy Agency’s 400-million-barrel collective release in March. When a similar offer went out in June, return premiums of up to 24% meant companies took only about 500,000 barrels. The IEA’s decision a day earlier to speed up its remaining release was covered in the 10/17 briefing.

Sources: Reuters via Devdiscourse, OilPrice.com

US waives 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy

Late on 16 October (US time) the US president signed an executive order waiving parts of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act. The waiver covers 100% tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas that were due to start on Sunday, 500% tariffs on Russian goods and some additional sanctions. It uses the law’s national-interest waiver and stays in place until officials decide further action is appropriate. Existing Russia sanctions remain, and agencies were told to keep monitoring importers of Russian energy and sanctions evasion. The Act’s tariff deadline was flagged earlier in our Brent and US carrier explainer.

Source: CBS News

China proposes export curbs on 40 AI, solar and biotech technologies

China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology published Announcement No. 48 of 2026 on 16 October, a draft revision of the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export. It covers 23 AI technologies (large models, AI agents, computing clusters and information processing), five in biomedicine (cell and gene therapy, small nucleic acid drugs, pathogenic microorganisms) and 12 in photovoltaics (polysilicon, wafer and cell manufacturing). Fourteen would be banned and 26 restricted, and the solar items extend to key equipment that embodies the technology. AI technology already public through open source or academic papers is excluded.

Comments are open until 15 November, but pre-export registration for the listed technologies applies from the announcement date until the revised catalogue takes effect, including exports already under way. Registration covers transfers of IP ownership, licensing for use abroad and changes of owner or controller to a foreign entity.

Sources: MOFCOM announcement, China Daily

Container rates: Asia–Europe rebounds after 13 weeks

Drewry’s WCI rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October. Shanghai–Rotterdam gained 6% to $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa 7% to $3,945, ending 13 consecutive weekly declines. Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884 and Shanghai–New York slipped 1% to $10,075. Carriers want Asia–Europe FAK rates of $4,500–4,800 from 19 October, but Drewry said the resumption of Suez Canal transits is adding capacity, so the increases may not stick.

Source: Drewry World Container Index

What it means for traders

  • Fuel: With Brent near $110, bunker costs can flow into bunker adjustment factors (BAF). Ask for BAF and war-risk surcharges as separate lines in this week’s quotes (see Institute Cargo Clauses A, B, C).
  • Freight: Asia–Europe carriers are attempting FAK increases from 19 October, so quotes may differ by sailing date. On the transpacific, West Coast rates firmed while East Coast eased slightly.
  • Sanctions: The waiver can be reversed by executive decision and existing Russia sanctions still apply. Recheck origin and sanctions clauses on any deal involving Russian crude or products.
  • China sourcing: Contracts for Chinese solar manufacturing equipment or AI and biotech licences may slow while the Chinese side registers. Add delivery and liability terms for registration delays.
  • Currency: The won was quoted at 1,331.4 per dollar at 3:30 p.m. KST on 16 October, 13.2 won stronger than the day before and its strongest in over two years, which eases dollar payments, though higher oil prices can offset part of that.

Source (FX): Yonhap, Newsis

FAQ

How high is $110 Brent?

The 16 October settlement of $109.86 is the highest close since 19 May. It is still about 7% below this year’s high close of $118.35 on 31 March, according to Dow Jones data.

Does the US waiver mean trading Russian energy is now unrestricted?

No. The waiver pauses the Graham Act’s new tariffs and some additional sanctions, while existing Russia sanctions stay in force. It has no end date, so it can be lifted again by executive decision.

When do China’s new technology export controls apply?

The catalogue revision will be finalised after comments close on 15 November. Pre-export registration for the listed technologies, however, applies from 16 October, including deals already in progress.

Aerial night view of a brightly lit oil refinery under a dark blue sky, no people or logos

Press coverage / sources

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