Hormuz Attacks Persist: What Changes? | World Briefing 10/19

Risk in the Strait of Hormuz did not ease over the weekend: the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said a tug was hit by two projectiles inside the strait on 18 October and kept its threat level at “severe”; the same JMIC Update 106 put transits in the week to 14 October at 254, about 70% below pre-conflict levels. Iran says its seven-day reopening offer is still on the table, but the gap with Washington’s conditions remains.

Key takeaways

• JMIC reported two tankers and a tug attacked in the Arabian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz between 16 and 18 October. UKMTO’s weekly overview of 16 October counted 12 attacks in the week.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) claimed two supertankers hit mines, but JMIC said there is no substantiation for the claim.
• Iran’s foreign minister said on 18 October the strait could reopen within six days if the US accepts Tehran’s conditions. Washington wants the nuclear programme addressed first.
• The US Secretary of State said the President wants a 60-day period to study the Russia-related tariffs that were waived. Russia said US diesel contracts are not yet signed.
• Vietnam signed a free trade agreement with the EFTA states (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) on 18 October.

Top stories

Hormuz attacks continue; traffic about 30% of normal

JMIC’s 18 October update said a southbound tug about 20 nautical miles northeast of Khor Fakkan, inside the strait, was struck by two unknown projectiles that day; it was damaged but continued, and one crew member had minor injuries. On 16 October the tanker ST3 was hit by a projectile about 68 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia (crew evacuated safely), and another tanker in the central Arabian Gulf was attacked after a small boat approached. A navigation warning for the wreck and floating containers of the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride, which sank in the strait on 13 October, remains active.

Traffic remains thin. JMIC Update 106, citing UKMTO’s weekly overview, recorded 254 transits (125 outbound, 129 inbound) in the week to 14 October, about 70% below pre-conflict levels, while US-assisted transits averaged about 28 a day over the last 72 hours. The IRGC claimed on 17 October that two supertankers caught fire after hitting mines; JMIC said there is no substantiation. Friday’s oil moves are in the 10/18 briefing.

Sources: JMIC Advisory Update 106 (UKMTO), BBC, Al Jazeera

Iran’s seven-day offer stands; nuclear issue blocks a deal

Reuters reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on 18 October that the seven-day proposal Iran gave the US in mid-September is still on the table. Iran’s conditions include lifting the US blockade of its ports, lifting sanctions on its oil exports and ending hostilities on all regional fronts; if Washington accepts, Iran says the strait could reopen within six days, with talks resuming the next day. The US insists on dealing with the nuclear programme from the outset. In an interview on 15 October (US time), the US president said he expects a deal to end the war after the 3 November midterm elections.

Sources: Reuters via Al-Monitor, Al Jazeera

Russia tariff waiver gets a 60-day review; diesel contracts still unsigned

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 17 October that the Graham Act measures are not only sanctions on Russia but tariffs on countries such as India, and that the President wants to use a 60-day period to analyse what imposing them would mean for the global and US economies. He cited pressure on energy supply from Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The waiver itself was covered in the 10/18 briefing.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 18 October, according to Russian state agency TASS, that the US Department of Energy has identified buyers and commercial terms are being negotiated, with diesel reaching US markets 15 to 20 days after contracts are signed. Russia presented plans for 500,000 tonnes in October and 1 million tonnes each in November and December. Background on the diesel deal is in the 10/11 briefing.

Sources: US Department of State, TASS

Vietnam signs FTA with the four EFTA states

Vietnam signed a free trade agreement in Hanoi on 18 October with the European Free Trade Association: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said it covers tariffs, technical barriers, sanitary and phytosanitary rules, customs and trade remedies, plus services, investment, intellectual property and government procurement. Two-way trade averages nearly $2 billion a year; Vietnam ships seafood, footwear, textiles and electronics, and buys machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. The entry-into-force date and tariff schedules were not part of the announcement.

Source: Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade

Updates from earlier briefings

• The US-China Board of Trade tariff-cut lists (about $30 billion each way) were covered in the 10/8 briefing and 10/15 briefing. As of the morning of 10/19, no new announcement on cut rates or start dates could be confirmed.
• Brent’s 16 October settlement ($109.86) and the latest container rates are in the 10/18 briefing. Markets were closed over the weekend.

What it means for traders

• Shipping and insurance: Attacks are continuing inside the strait and off Saudi Arabia in the central Arabian Gulf. For Middle East cargo, recheck war-risk surcharges and insurance terms (Institute Cargo Clauses and war-risk cover) before shipment (see Institute Cargo Clauses A, B, C).
• Schedules: With transits about 30% of normal, plan Middle East deliveries on the assumption of delays. Even if Iran’s offer were accepted, Iran says reopening would take up to six days.
• Sanctions and tariffs: The US waiver on Russia-related tariffs could be reversed after the review. Firms trading with buyers of Russian energy such as India or China should add price-adjustment clauses for tariff changes.
• Market diversification: The Vietnam–EFTA FTA is not yet in force. Exporters shipping from Vietnamese plants to Switzerland or Norway should check the rules of origin once they are published (see certificate of origin issuance).

FAQ

Can ships transit the Strait of Hormuz right now?

Yes, but far fewer do. JMIC Update 106 recorded 254 transits in the week to 14 October, about 70% below pre-conflict levels, and JMIC keeps its regional threat level at “severe”.

Would the strait reopen immediately if Iran’s seven-day offer were accepted?

Iran’s foreign minister said the strait could reopen within six days if the US accepts Tehran’s conditions. The US still wants the nuclear programme addressed first, so there is no deal yet.

How long does the US waiver on Russia-related tariffs last?

The executive order sets no end date. The Secretary of State said the President wants 60 days to study the impact, so it is safer to plan for the possibility that the tariffs return after that.

Press coverage / sources

• https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf?rev=86f67da1821f4dcdb4e27868b6679729 (JMIC Advisory Update 106)
• https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmde8dpg8g0no (BBC, GFS Pride sinking)
• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/18/iran-says-two-tankers-catch-fire-after-hitting-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz (Al Jazeera)
• https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-urges-us-accept-proposal-reopen-strait-hormuz (Reuters, Iran seven-day proposal)
• https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/10/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-the-press-18 (US Department of State)
• https://tass.com/economy/2203689 (TASS, Russian state media)
• https://moit.gov.vn/en/news/signing-of-the-free-trade-agreement-between-viet-nam-and-the-member-states-of-the-european-free-trade-association-efta-.html (Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade)