Hormuz Tanker Attacks: What Changes? | World Briefing 10/21

Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, but hopes of US-Iran talks pushed Brent down 0.7% to settle at $108.79 on 20 October (local time). Crude tanker freight is more than ten times last year’s level, and container rates ended a three-week slide.

Key takeaways

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) said on 20 October it attacked two tankers that were “not following instructions”, according to Iran’s state-run Tasnim agency. Kpler counted at least 18 commercial vessels attacked over the past two weeks.
• Brent December futures rose as high as $111.99 intraday before settling at $108.79. WTI November fell 1.8% to $101.79.
• ING said crude freight from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, to Rotterdam topped $35 a barrel in September, versus about $2 in 2025.
• Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October, led by the first Asia-Europe increase after 13 weekly declines.

Top stories

Hormuz tanker attacks continue; oil settles lower on talks hopes

Financial News reported that Iran’s Tasnim agency said the IRGC stated on 20 October it had attacked two tankers that were not following instructions. Kpler said at least 18 commercial vessels were attacked over the past two weeks. Reuters reported that Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on 19 October on Saudi energy, airport and military targets; Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claims at the time and Reuters said it could not verify them.

Oil gave up an intraday surge. Brent December rose as high as $111.99 before settling 0.7% lower at $108.79 a barrel. WTI November fell 1.8% to $101.79, and WTI December, the front month from 21 October, slipped 26 cents to $98.28. Expectations that the US and Iran could enter negotiations weighed on prices. Weekend developments in the strait are in the 10/19 briefing.

Sources: Financial News (English), EconoTimes, citing Reuters

Crude tanker freight at more than ten times last year

ING’s commodities strategists said freight from Ras Tanura to Rotterdam exceeded $35 per barrel in September, compared with about $2 in 2025. Citing Clarksons data, ING put average crude tanker earnings above $500,000 a day in early October, about ten times the 2025 average. ING pointed to longer or less efficient voyages, a limited pool of compliant vessels, few tanker orders in 2022 and 2023, and older ships moving into Russia’s shadow fleet. It estimated that freight and refinery margins together could add more than $0.50 to the base price of a litre of diesel in Europe.

Kpler estimated that the Middle East Gulf, excluding Iran, exported at least 16.5 million barrels a day of crude and condensate from 1 to 28 September, in line with its pre-war average on the same basis. About 40% of the region’s crude avoided the Strait of Hormuz in September, compared with 17% before the war.

Source: EconoTimes, citing ING, Clarksons and Kpler

Container rates: Asia-Europe rebound lifts the WCI 3%

Drewry’s WCI rose 3% week-on-week to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October, ending three consecutive weekly declines. Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884 and Shanghai–New York fell 1% to $10,075. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa 7% to $3,945, the first Asia-Europe increase after 13 weeks of decline.

Drewry said strong US import demand continues to support transpacific rates. On Asia-Europe, carriers are trying to push FAK rates to $4,500–$4,800 per 40ft from 19 October, but fewer blank sailings and resumed Suez Canal transits are adding capacity, so whether the increases stick is uncertain.

Source: Drewry WCI, 15 October

Updates from earlier briefings

• The US waiver on Russia-related tariffs and the 60-day review were covered in the 10/18 briefing and 10/19 briefing. As of the morning of 10/21, no new official decision could be confirmed.
• The US-China Board of Trade tariff-cut lists (about $30 billion each way) were covered in the 10/8 briefing and 10/15 briefing. Cut rates and start dates have still not been confirmed.

What it means for traders

• Freight: Higher fuel costs can feed into bunker and fuel surcharges on sea and air freight. When you get quotes, check the surcharge reference date and revision terms.
• Insurance: For Middle East cargo, recheck war-risk surcharges and cover before shipment (see Institute Cargo Clauses A, B, C).
• Schedules: While attacks continue, plan Middle East deliveries on the assumption of delays. On Asia-Europe, added capacity from resumed Suez transits may give shippers more room in rate talks.
• Contracts: When freight and surcharges move fast, recheck which party bears freight under your Incoterms (see Incoterms 2020 summary).

What to check now: carrier schedule notices, war-risk cover on cargo insurance, and whether key customer delivery windows need adjusting.

FAQ

Oil fell, so has the Hormuz risk eased?

No. The 20 October drop came from hopes of US-Iran talks, and the IRGC said the same day it attacked two tankers. Kpler counted at least 18 commercial vessels attacked over the past two weeks.

Do tanker rates affect container shipments?

Not directly, but higher fuel costs can reach container cargo through fuel surcharges. Container rates themselves rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft on Drewry’s WCI for 15 October.

Will Asia-Europe container rates keep rising?

Drewry expects rates to stay stable next week. Carriers are attempting FAK increases from 19 October, but resumed Suez transits and fewer blank sailings are adding capacity, so the increases may not stick.

Press coverage / sources

• https://en.fnnews.com/news/202610210454569894 (Financial News, 20 Oct oil settlement, IRGC attacks, Kpler count)
• https://econotimes.com/Brent-Tops-111-Amid-Middle-East-Supply-Risks-Tanker-Costs-Climb-1757757 (EconoTimes, citing ING, Clarksons, Kpler and Reuters)
• https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry (Drewry WCI, 15 October)